Zhejiang Dingli (603338): Better-than-expected profit performance, good prospects for both supply and demand growth

Zhejiang Dingli (603338): Better-than-expected profit performance, good prospects for both supply and demand growth
27 Apr
2020

Zhejiang Dingli (603338): Better-than-expected profit performance, good prospects for both supply and demand growth

Event: On the evening of April 12, the company released its 2018 annual report: the company achieved operating income of 17.

1 billion, an annual increase of 49.

89%; net profit attributable to mothers4.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 69 in ten years.

69%; net operating cash flow for the same period was approximately 4.

2 ‰, an increase of 19 in ten years.

twenty two%.

Core point of view Exchange rate fluctuations result in an increase in exchange gains, driving profit growth beyond expectations.

The company’s initial income, attributable to the growth rate of the mother’s net profit, ranks what we previously called 61.

1%, 57.

The forecast value of 5% is in line with expectations on the whole, and the revenue growth rate in terms of sub-items is lower than expected, while the profit side performed better than expected.

In terms of breakdown, the company’s scale sales, management + R & D, and financial expense ratios are 5 respectively.

38%, 6.

92% and -2.

09%, estimating our previous forecast of 4.

5%, 6.

3%, 0.

1%, there are certain differences in financial items and sales expenses. Among them, the decrease in financial expenses and the decrease in sales expenses are mainly caused by the increase in exchange income generated 天津夜网 by exchange rates; the company strengthened the construction of after-sales service systems, resulting in after-sale maintenance, transportation, loading and unloading, personnel costs and other expenses.The rapid growth caused the expense rate to rise slightly more than expected.

In terms of product structure, in 2018, the revenue from the scissor platform12.

8 billion, an annual increase of 50.

3%, the company’s revenue accounted for 75%.

1%, gross margin 40.

93%, or affected by the price of steel raw materials, appear alternately1.

82 units; arm-type platforms grow faster and achieve revenue2.

$ 10.3 billion.

2%, currently accounting for about 12 of the company’s total revenue.

1%, the gross profit margin is slightly lower than the scissor platform, but benefit from the scale effect, the gross profit margin is increasing; the mast platform achieves revenue1.

51 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

97%, gross profit margin remained stable.

Demand side: Deeply cultivate domestic and foreign markets, high growth and sustainable.

In 2018, the company’s territory realized income from main operations7.

16 ppm, an increase of 84 in ten years.

23%, the overseas market realized income 9.

2.5 billion, an annual increase of 30.

18%.

In terms of market demand, we believe that the overseas growth rate is significant, the domestic market space is wide, and the company’s demand is high-end and sustainable. 1) The scale of the overseas market, European and American demand is mainly leasing, mainly to update demand, and the company must continuously improve after-sales service.System, reducing intermediate agents, deepening the European, American, and Japanese markets, helping customers to sticky learning and market expansion; emerging markets such as Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, India, etc. are also expected to enter the entry phase, and it is still expected to maintain 15% -25% in the next three years.Compound growth; 2) The size of the domestic market, high-altitude operation platforms are still in the market transition period, the demographic dividends have diminished, construction efficiency requirements have improved, security regulations and awareness are perfect, and the medium- and long-term platform generation trend is obvious; in the short term, the current domestic marketZhejiang Dingli, Terex, and JLG were established. As the only Chinese company in the top ten of global high-altitude operation equipment, the company has a relatively competitive advantage. In the later period, it may be affected by the involvement of domestic construction machinery leaders. Industry competition will improve and intensify, butThe company has a certain initiative, brand, technology accumulation面The advantage of the next three years is expected to maintain high growth.

Supply side: The expansion of production capacity is gradually realized, which is the basis for the scale of growth in the medium term: 1) On the projects that have been invested and constructed, the company’s own funds invest in “annual output 1”.

The 50,000 smart mini aerial work platform technology transformation project “has been successfully put into production in July 2018, and the release of production capacity and caliber changes will increase 19H1 performance; 2) In terms of construction projects, the” large smart aerial work platform construction project “has been completedThe main factory building is currently at the end of the construction period and the equipment procurement stage. It is expected that 19H2 will be officially put into operation. After the project is put into operation, 3,200 large-scale intelligent aerial work platforms can be added, which is expected to significantly increase revenue. Earnings forecast and rating: The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 2.

71 yuan, 3.

68 yuan and 4.

83 yuan, currently the total corresponding to 2019-2021 price-earnings ratios are 28.

1 time, 20.

7 times and 15.

8 times, maintaining the “cautious recommendation” level.

Risk reminder: the internal economic downturn leads to weak demand; Xugong, Lingong and other traditional construction machinery giants enter, industry competition intensifies; exchange rate changes risk.